2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0. Trade restrictions on imports and Jan 4, 2024 · WORKING PAPERS. Figures are adjusted for reporting lag and include restrictions across trade, investment, and migration. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector, general-equilibrium model that accounts for unique demand and supply characteristics of commodities. First, it increases productivity by expanding the international division of labor. Oct 10, 2023 · Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8. The October 2018 World Economic Outlook looks at the possible impact of tariffs on GDP for the U. So would you elaborate how rising trade distortions and geoeconomic fragmentations will continue weighing on the level of global trade? Jun 24, 2024 · United States of America Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission. 6 Global Trade Alert, 2023. Welcome to this IMF Press Briefing. Corrections to the April 2024 Database. Over the past 20 years, the growth of world trade has averaged 6 percent per year, twice as fast as world output. Of these, more than two thirds were trade-distorting as they likely discriminated against foreign commercial interests. Jul 17, 2020 · publications@imf. For 2025, we project growth in the region to decelerate mildly to 4. On inflation, the news has also been mostly positive, which improves the prospects for a soft landing. As a share of GDP, global trade has fallen modestly, driven mostly by China—which for years has pursued a “dual Mar 13, 2024 · WTO and IMF Joint Statement on Trade and the COVID-19 Response, April 24, 2020. Learn how the IMF is enhancing data transparency to drive economic growth and accountability. October 9, 2018. She draws parallels between historical periods of globalization and fragmentation, emphasizing the current geopolitical tensions between the US and China. 2003 - present. Eastern Time in the U. The following data were incorrect in the originally published database and were corrected here on May 21, 2024. 2010 2015 2020 2008 2020 Nov 30, 2023 · In her acceptance speech for the 2023 Bernhard Harms Prize, Gita Gopinath discusses the rising phenomenon of geoeconomic fragmentation and its implications for Europe. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 New Barriers to Commodity Trade Doubled in 2022 Sources: Global Trade Alert Database (adjusted for reporting lag); and IMF Staff calculations. Mar 25, 2014 · With the global economic crisis of 2008–09 came concerns that some countries may resort to protectionism to try to deal with its consequences. Global activity proved resilient in the second half of last year, as demand and supply factors Nov 4, 2022 · Economic theory suggests that countries’ tariff commitments in trade agreements reflect their import market power at the time of negotiations. m. Jul 15, 2022 · Facilitating trade and improving the functioning and resilience of global markets for food and agriculture, including cereals, fertilizers, and other agriculture production inputs are key, as outlined in the WTO Ministerial Declaration on the Emergency Response to Food Security. The IMF is governed by and accountable to its member countries. Econometric testing of indicators intended to proxy financial sector stability-subdivided into exchange rate and banking sector stability-suggests that opening of the financial sector is an efficient policy instrument at the disposal of Apr 16, 2010 · If protectionist trade measures were allowed to balloon, it could harm global trade and stifle the global economic recovery, according to the research. 3 percent, reflecting to a large extent China’s growth slowdown. The latest: Since the beginning of the year, there has been a surge in trade-related policy measures imposed on essential goods (including food and fertilizers), and other key inputs exported by Russia and Ukraine (fuels and raw materials) [eg – trade restrictions rise between July 31st—our last update—and September 7th, 2022] Actual trade restrictions imposed by countries have also been on a rising trend, with data from Global . Kozack: Good morning, everyone. Dec 31, 2016 · This analysis of the extent of trade integration of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries in the global economy as well as within the region over the 1995–2013 period focuses on four key concepts: (1) trade openness, captured by import and export flows; (2) the centrality in the global and regional trade network, a measure that takes into account not only the size of trade but also the number Apr 3, 2017 · Productivity growth—the key driver of living standards—fell sharply following the global financial crisis and has remained sluggish since, adding to a slowdown already in train before. 4 trillion in today’s dollars. Secondly, Gopinath notes that while Europe is highly exposed to Jan 11, 2018 · Global economic activity continues to strengthen. Market-oriented structural reforms ease this trade-off by promoting economic growth and strengthening public finances. RECESSIONS and their aftermath have been breeding grounds for protectionist pressures. 9 percent. This paper presents the most comprehensive and up-to-date panel data set of invoicing currencies in global trade. restrictions since 2018, mirroring the increase seen in trade-related uncertainty (Figure 3. Around 1,000 ships pass through the Panama Canal each month carrying a total of over 40 million tons of goods—about 5 percent of global maritime trade volumes. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF. But water levels in this vital link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have fallen to critical lows because of the worst drought in the canal’s 143-year history. Information is needed on trade policy stance Apr 19, 2022 · Financial conditions have tightened and risks to the global economy have increased as a result of the war in Ukraine. of St. We know that by making services more tradeable, digitalization can boost productivity and living standards. Jan 22, 2024 · for the NIPO is under the sole responsibility of the Global Trade Alert team. Official policies are The IMF strongly supports the role of the World Trade Organization (WTO), including its role in upholding trade rules and settling trade disputes. This note aims to support country teams with staff guidance, useful questions for engagement with national Oct 9, 2018 · Global Trade Tensions: Possible Scenarios. 6 percent this year and next, below its historic average growth rate of 4. 3 percent and 3. Doubts about the functioning of our current trading system are particularly pronounced. (1) In addition, complicating the food supply response is the doubling of fertilizer prices over the last twelve months, reflecting record-high costs of inputs such as natural gas. Policies were not The global GHG increased marginally in the second quarter of 2023. Many emerging and frontier markets are facing especially difficult conditions. ns, notably limits on exports of medical goods, medicines, and agricultural and food products. First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath. In response, governments have enacted policies to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic, including those aimed at personal protection and health, those offering Policy can play a role in shaping the future of the ailing multilateral trade system. In the past few months, global trade has been held back by disruptions at two critical shipping routes. Apr 12, 2024 · The IMF recently joined forces with the Global Trade Alert to monitor developments. Using this dataset to exploit higher supply linkages across a larger number of industries than what is available in cross-country sources, the paper estimates the trade diversion effect on Mexico’s exports to the U. Soaring commodity prices pose challenging trade-offs for central banks. The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents. Integration into the world economy has proven a powerful means for countries to promote economic growth, development, and poverty reduction. The platform helps policymakers and the public assess the impact of realized and future trade shocks, such as natural disasters, based on real-time data sourced from the UNGP. May 14, 2024 · World trade is picking up again. 7 percent in 2022 to 6. The evidence from these data confirms findings from earlier The Biden administration is working toward assuaging concerns over the IRA, which caught close US allies by surprise. 2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several Dec 31, 2016 · Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. May 16, 2024 · Good morning, everyone, both to those of us here in person and also those joining us online. 9 percent, reflecting increased global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved U. Open, stable, and transparent trade policies are key for economic growth and resilience and for addressing key global challenges, including climate change, food security, and underdevelopment. The demand and supply shocks unleashed by the pandemic were expected to lead to a dramatic collapse in trade, but international commerce has proven more resilient than during previous global crises. PortWatch is an open platform designed to monitor and simulate disruptions to maritime trade flows. The outbreak has greatly amplified uncertainty and downside risks around the outlook. A shallow and uneven recovery from the global financial crisis (GFC) was followed by Brexit, U. Note: Includes restrictions on goods, investment, and services. Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea area reduced traffic through the Suez Canal, the shortest maritime route between Asia and Europe, through which about 15 percent of global maritime trade volume normally passes. She highlights three key points: Firstly, she emphasizes that geoeconomic fragmentation is a reality, with trade patterns shifting and supply chains lengthening. 01:13. Dec 30, 2016 · The paper explores empirically the links between the WTO-driven liberalization of trade in financial services and the stability of national financial systems. Note: Fragmentation indices measure the average number of sentences, per thousand earnings calls, that mention at least one of the following keywords: In this case, global output losses would be substantial, at 2. As usual, this briefing is embargoed until 11:00 a. More broadly, we advocate for more trade and cross-border investment flows to increase productivity and address global challenges. International Trade and the World Economy. Trade Alert showing a significant increase in new . This column introduces the 27th Global Trade Alert report, which looks back over the past quarter of a century to put current FDI dynamics in perspective, assesses the degree to which governments continue to favour FDI, and points the spotlight on the limited Sep 1, 2023 · During the past two years, The COVID-19 pandemic has cost millions of lives around the globe, caused major morbidity and provoked widespread economic and social disruption [ 1 ]. The empirical analysis in this note, based on 62 EMDEs over 1973-2014, shows that reforms are associated with sizeable and long-lasting reductions in THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: TURY APPROACHES TO TRACKING TRADE POLICY RESPONSES IN REAL-TIMEMETHODOLOGICAL NOTE2 May 2020Concern has been expressed in many quarters about govern-ment resort to trade restricti. The IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions shows a striking increase in the number of times that ‘national security’ is mentioned in country reports (Figure 3). Trade agreements and globalization were once lauded for creating efficient and dynamic supply chains, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and reducing prices for consumers around the globe. Nov 13, 2017 · We document that the U. . 00:57. As a share of GDP, global trade has fallen modestly, driven mostly by China—which for years has pursued a “dual Nov 15, 2023 · A unique feature of PortWatch is its disaster alert system, providing weekly email alerts on trade disruptions in affected countries. tax policy changes. In response, the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the independent watchdog Global Trade Alert (GTA) began to compile detailed information on new trade and trade-related measures. And around the globe, economic integration has boosted per capita incomes while creating millions We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Policy tools of a “defensive” nature are more actively used in traditional sectors such as minerals, metals, and chemicals, and Dec 23, 2023 · This paper introduces the New Industrial Policy Observatory (NIPO) dataset and documents emergent patterns of policy intervention during 2023 associated with the return of industrial policy. The pickup in growth has been broad based, with notable upside surprises in Europe and Asia. Building on new research, this note finds that the productivity slowdown reflects both crisis legacies and structural headwinds. It provides data on the shares of exports and imports invoiced in US dollars, euros, and other currencies for more than 100 countries since 1990. As we look ahead toward the world of 2040 — aiming to foresee how the economy, the financial sector, and society will take shape — Daniel’s first question asks us to discern the major factors that will shape the economy and society by mid-century. Aug 25, 2021 · This is the 71st issue of the Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER), which provides a yearly description of the foreign exchange arrangements, exchange and trade systems, and capital controls of all IMF member countries. Second, it enables export-led economic growth by providing access to foreign markets. Series on the Future of the International Monetary System (IMS) Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. 4 log points between the first quarter of 2017 and the second quarter of 2018. Gallen), Adam Jakubik (IMF), Fernando Martín (Global Trade Alert), We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Trade Policy Monitoring: Food, Fuel, Raw Materials. Asia and the Growing Risk of . This note aims to support country teams with staff guidance, useful questions for engagement with national Mar 7, 2024 · March 7, 2024. Selected series that are available in the WEO publication are now available on Sep 8, 2023 · Many emerging market and developing economies face a difficult trade-off between economic support and fiscal sustainability. The paper, “Trade and the Crisis: Protect or Recover,” released on April 16, argues that so far, the impact on global trade has been modest, at about 0. Jan 16, 2023 · While estimates of the cost of fragmentation vary, greater international trade restrictions could reduce global economic output by as much as 7 percent over the long term, or about $7. 6802 Views. 1, 3. Jan 30, 2024 · Growth in India, on the other hand, is expected to remain strong at 6. U. Jan 30, 2024 · According to IMF, world trade growth is projected at 3. 5 percent in both 2024 and 2025. The first OECD Economic Outlook in 2024, published in April, expects falling inflation will enable central banks to start lowering interest rates, but adds that real Provides high frequency data that is refreshed daily, a range of forecasts, including regional industrial production and commodity prices, daily and monthly commentary on trends in global growth, industrial production, high tech markets, trade, commodities, and financial markets. September 27, 2016. They are used in EVs, batteries and wiring, and renewable-energy technologies such as solar panels and wind turbines. A cooperation agreement between the two organizations covering various aspects of their relationship was signed shortly Trade tensions and threats of retaliatory measures among global trade leaders have pushed uncertainty measures to very high levels in 2018. Jan 17, 2024 · More broadly, the number of new global trade restrictions each year has been steadily increasing, from about 650 new restrictions in 2017 to more than 3,000 in 2023. Thank you for joining us today and welcome to the Managing Director’s press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda. I will start with some announcements and then we'll move to your questions in person, on Webex, or through the Press Center. 1 The AREAER reports on restrictions in effect under Article XIV, Section 2, of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement in accordance with Section Apr 16, 2024 · IMF Conference on Geoeconomic Fragmentation. I am the Director of Communications at the IMF. The IMF and the WTO work together on many levels, with the aim of ensuring greater coherence in global economic policymaking. Mar 11, 2024 · With the use and complexity of industrial policy rising, along with the need for active policies to address climate, food, health, and other emergencies, IMF staff are often expected to provide policy and technical advice on trade-related industrial policies to national authorities. But since then trade has rebounded to the highest value ever. And third, it bolsters economic security by giving firms and households valuable outside May 14, 2018 · b) Higher Productivity. 3% in 2025 – more than double the 1% growth seen in 2023. I am Julie Kozack, Director of Communications at the IMF. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. But the pace of expansion remains slow, and turbulence may lie ahead. Global economic ties are changing in ways we have not seen since the end of the Cold War. C. June 27, 2024. 3 percent of global GDP, equivalent to the size of the French economy (Chart 2). Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity I. Apr 18, 2024 · Moderator: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, IMF. The Global Trade Alert (GTA), a network of think tanks and institutes that collect information on trade measures, covers a larger spectrum of actions that may affect trade and reports 1,593 actions between November 2008 and November 2011, of which 1,187 discriminated against foreign suppliers and 406 were liberalizing. org. Despite its systemic importance and rapid growth, data availability is only partial. New Trade Interventions, by Sector (Indices, 2016-2019=100 for All Goods and All Commodities) Dec 11, 2023 · Sources: Caldara and Iacoviello (2022); Hassan and others (2019); NL Analytics, Inc. An estimated 80 percent of world trade relies on this form of finance (WTO, 2017). PDF version. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually, and inflation is not expected to return to target until 2025 in most cases. And for more attention to how the benefits from trade and investment are shared in society. Jan 30, 2024 · January 30, 2024. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization of 190 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, and promote high employment and sustainable economic growth around the world by offering policy advice, lending, and building capacity to its members. Using a newly built dataset of pre-Uruguay Round applied tariffs and relying on Apr 20, 2020 · This Selected Issues paper focuses on Haiti near and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before coronavirus disease 2019 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. And smaller economies may be sidelined as the world fragments into rival trading blocs. Global trade has declined in recent years. May 7, 2024. What followed has been a sharp backlash amid concerns that Jun 3, 2021 · Properly guided, foreign direct investment has transformed the prospects of certain firms, sectors, regions, and even economies. It would be naive to think that the intersection of trade and climate policies will lessen—and not accelerate—with time. Prepared by Simon Evenett, Adam Jakubik, Fernando Martín, and Michele Ruta. Trade plateaus and restrictions rise, marking a new era for globalization ANDREW STANLEY Finance & Development 3,000 0 2,000 1,000 Rising restrictions (number of trade restrictions imposed annually worldwide) Source: Global Trade Alert. 20090 Nov 13, 2023 · About the IMF. Oct 10, 2018 · We know that trade has helped transform our world—by boosting productivity, spreading new technologies, and making products more affordable. As a share of global output, trade is now at almost three times the level in the early 1950s, in large part driven by the integration of rapidly growing emerging market economies (EMEs). Though trade flows have adjusted, more diversified global value chains could help lessen the impact of future shocks. We also know that digital technology can lift manufacturing productivity. The data show that the recent wave of new industrial policy activity is primarily driven by advanced economies, and that subsidies are the most employed instrument. Jul 15, 2022 · Making matters worse, around 25 countries have reacted to higher food prices by adopting export restrictions affecting over 8 percent of global food trade. ; Global Trade Alert database; and IMF staff calculations. Access Data: Access all data that power the PortWatch platform here. The U. Growing global tensions, notes the IMF’s Michele Ruta, may push regional trade alliances toward less integration and more discrimination. , China, and global growth. Gopinath outlined WORLD WORLD ECONOMIC ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE. 3 The Global Trade Alert reports that, between November 2008 and December 2021, more than 32,500 protectionist policy interventions were implemented globally, outnumbering the 6,900 trade-liberalizing ones (WEF 2022). However, as countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways and their commitments may no longer reflect changed economic conditions. Note: Trade-liberalizing interventions are excluded from the calculations. The global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. Gopinath highlights signs of growing trade and Mar 11, 2024 · With the use and complexity of industrial policy rising, along with the need for active policies to address climate, food, health, and other emergencies, IMF staff are often expected to provide policy and technical advice on trade-related industrial policies to national authorities. North Macedonia, 2003–29: The WEO database is created during the biannual World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise. In China, financial vulnerabilities remain elevated amid ongoing stress in the property sector and new COVID-19 outbreaks Oct 25, 2023 · In her opening speech at the ninth IMF-World Bank-WTO Trade Research Conference, Gita Gopinath highlighted the challenges facing global trade, including historically low trade growth and rising trade barriers. The IMF staff is closely monitoring the situation There are at least three reasons international trade is crucial for global prosperity. Our new research shows that there were more than 2,500 industrial policy interventions worldwide last year. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. S. Apr 11, 2024 · IMF staff has stepped up work in this area because more data, analysis and dialogue are needed to avoid costly mistakes. This growth potential shows the importance of higher productivity—another building block of better trade. Our benchmark measure of trade uncertainty has increased by 1. International Monetary Fund. Nov 15, 2023 · November 15, 2023. Mar 24, 2023 · We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward by to 3. Policy can play a role in shaping the future of the ailing multilateral trade system. My name is Julie Kozack. 9 percent in 2023 and 5. AS PREPARED FOR DELIVERY. The analysis points to one important Minerals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium are critical inputs for the energy transition. But trade has been an engine of growth for The International Monetary Fund (IMF) works to achieve sustainable growth and prosperity for all of its 190 member countries. Nov 10, 2023 · The paper builds a unique industry-level dataset by combining Mexico’s nationally sourced inputoutput data (INEGI) with cross-country sources (WIOD, UN Comtrade). from two Feb 22, 2024 · The 2023 Annual Report of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics (the Committee) provides an overview of recent trends in global balance of payments and international investment position statistics, including the impact of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic on selected balance of payments components, particularly cross-border trade, travel, transport, and financial flows. –China trade tensions, and a growing number of military conflicts. 1 percent in 2024 and 3. That’s equivalent to the combined size of the French and German economies, and three times sub-Saharan Africa’s annual output. What are the reasons, and what can we do about it? Sep 27, 2021 · MEDIA RELATIONS. So far the world has resisted widespread resort to trade measures, but the hardest part may be yet to come. A typical EV battery pack, for example, needs about 8 kilograms of lithium, 35 kilograms of nickel, and 14 kilograms of cobalt. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D. Finance & Development, March 2010, Volume 47, Number 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Trade restrictions on imports and exports are more frequently used by emerging market and developing economies, possibly reflecting more limited fiscal space to engage in subsidy competition. monetary policy induced Dartmouth’s Doug Irwin says history shows industrial policies and subsidies could leave countries worse off. Ms. Mar 27, 2023 · Data from the Global Trade Alert Database shows a rising number of trade restrictions imposed by countries (Figure 2). 8 percent in 2024, due to tighter monetary policy aided by lower international commodity prices. In advanced economies, the global financial crisis has led to “productivity In the decade since, global trade has taken some significant twists and turns. The clouds are beginning to part. Introduction. Third, subsidies may lead trading partners to believe that a government promoted unfair competition and could compel them to react in kind. May 7, 2024 · Geopolitics and its Impact on Global Trade and the Dollar. 25 percent. PortWatch is a collaborative project between the IMF and the University of Oxford, bringing together experts from macroeconomics, climate risk modeling, and data science. The Fund’s longstanding role in international trade and trade policy is IMF | Strategy, Policy and Review 1 FEBRUARY 12, 2024 Photo: Chris Martin/Newscom The Return of Industrial Policy in Data Simon Evenett (Uni. Avoiding Protectionism. Here in Asia, for example, trade has been instrumental in creating the world’s largest middle-classes. The expansion in trade is mostly accounted for by growth in noncommodity exports, especially of high-technology Apr 12, 2022 · April 12, 2022. Geoeconomic Fragmentation. Jul 15, 2022 · WTOのGlobal Trade Alert（グローバル貿易アラート）、2022年2月以降の貿易政策の変更に関する世界銀行のモニタリングに基づく。 IMFコミュニケーション局 Mar 7, 2024 · March 7, 2024. The OECD expects global trade in goods and services to grow by 2. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. PRESS OFFICER: Phone: +1 202 623-7100 MEDIA@IMF. economy has proven itself to be robust, dynamic, and adaptable to changing global conditions, but fiscal deficits, trade restrictions, and unaddressed banking vulnerabilities pose important downside risks. 3% this year and 3. Subscribe here for email alerts. During the 2008 financial crisis, policy makers, notably the G20 recognized that the absence of Sep 27, 2016 · Economic Outlook The State of Global Trade. The global economy is expected to maintain near Nov 15, 2017 · Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. However, this friction may be only the opening salvo in a decade marked by green trade tensions. Jul 31, 2019 · Trade finance is the backbone of international trade for entities ranging from a small businesses to multi-national corporations. Strategic competitiveness is the dominant motive governments give for these measures, followed by climate and supply chain resilience. Jun 15, 2011 · The past few decades have seen important shifts that have reshaped the global trade landscape. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness. May 25, 2023. 1955 Views. Dartmouth’s Doug Irwin says history shows industrial policies and subsidies could leave countries worse off. Open Path to Soft Landing2024 • Global growth is projected at 3. Industrial policy (IP) has gained increased prominence in public discourse over the last several years, as shown in Figure 1. The 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods multilateral institutions ironically comes at a time when the benefits of multilateralism are being challenged. It does so by supporting economic policies that promote financial stability and monetary cooperation, which are essential to increase productivity, job creation, and economic well-being. This happens most often when subsidies undercut improved market access that flows from tariff reductions. Permanent losses for advanced economies and emerging markets would be on the order of 2 to 3 percent. And low-income countries would come under significant pressure, losing more than 4 percent of GDP. She emphasized the surge in industrial policy and its potential negative impacts, particularly in advanced economies, and the risks associated with trade fragmentation. The Return of Industrial Policy in Data. The IMF Data Standards Initiatives encourage countries to publish key economic data in a timely and disciplined manner. After decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of fragmentation. Over time, this can increase perceptions that trade is unfair and can reduce public support for trade. The authors wish to thank the Global Trade Alert monitoring team, Johannes Fritz, Kenneth Kang, Aaditya Mattoo, Martin Sommer, and colleagues from IMF departments for their thoughtful comments, and Shuhan Yue for excellent research assistance. Christian Henn and Brad McDonald. When measured in US dollars, global trade growth slowed after the global financial crisis in 2008–09 and declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Dec 11, 2023 · In her speech at the 20th World Congress of the International Economic Association, Gita Gopinath discusses the potential onset of Cold War II and its implications for the global economy. rl fx bj yw mx ov gg yl mw ku